منابع مشابه
Fair space weather for solar cycle 24
[1] We discuss the polar field precursor method of solar activity forecasting, first developed 3 decades ago. Using this method the peak amplitude of the next solar cycle (24) is estimated at 124 ± 30 in terms of smoothed F10.7 Radio Flux and 80 ± 30 in terms of smoothed international or Zurich Sunspot number (Ri or Rz). This may be regarded as a ‘‘fair space weather’’ long term forecast. To su...
متن کاملSolar cycle changes in coronal holes and space weather cycles
[1] Potential field source surface models of the coronal magnetic field, based on Mt. Wilson Observatory synoptic magnetograms, are used to infer the coronal hole sources of low-heliolatitude solar wind over approximately the last three solar cycles. Related key parameters like interplanetary magnetic field and bulk velocity are also calculated. The results illustrate how the evolving contribut...
متن کاملSolar Radio Bursts and Space Weather
Space Weather is the study of the conditions in the solar wind that can affect life on the surface of the Earth, particularly the increasingly technologically sophisticated devices that are part of modern life. Solar radio observations are relevant to such phenomena because they generally originate as events in the solar atmosphere, including flares, coronal mass ejections and shocks, that prod...
متن کاملSolar cycle 24: Implications for energetic particles and long‐term space climate change
[1] The recent solar minimumwas the longest and deepest of the space age, with the lowest average sunspot numbers for nearly a century. The Sun appears to be exiting a grand solar maximum (GSM) of activity which has persisted throughout the space age, and is headed into a significantly quieter period. Indeed, initial observations of solar cycle 24 (SC24) continue to show a relatively low helios...
متن کاملPredicting solar cycle 24 with a solar dynamo model.
Whether or not the upcoming cycle 24 of solar activity will be strong is being hotly debated. The solar cycle is produced by a complex dynamo mechanism. We model the last few solar cycles by "feeding" observational data of the Sun's polar magnetic field into our solar dynamo model. Our results fit the observed sunspot numbers of cycles 21-23 reasonably well and predict that cycle 24 will be abo...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Geophysical Research Letters
سال: 2005
ISSN: 0094-8276
DOI: 10.1029/2005gl024363