منابع مشابه
Prediction Market Prices as Martingales: Theory and Analysis
Introduction With prediction markets growing in number and in prominence in various domains, the construction of a modeling framework for the behavior of prices on traded contracts has become an increasingly important endeavor. In this paper, we present such a theoretical framework, as we attempt to use mar-tingale theory in the analysis of prediction market price fluctuations. The application ...
متن کاملProduct Market Competition and Stock Market Efficiency
How does competition in a firm's product market affect the behavior of its stock? We examine this question in a noisy rational expectations economy in which firms operate under monopolistic competition. Production is subject to productivity shocks and requires capital, raised on a perfectly competitive equity market. Investors observe firms' past profits and collect private information about th...
متن کاملContinuous Martingales and Local Martingales
Throughout these notes, (Ω,F ,P ) will be a probability space and F := {Ft }t∈J a filtration indexed by J , where J is an interval, usually J = [0,∞). The filtration F is said to be complete if each Ft contains all sets of measure 0, and is right-continuous if Ft =∩s>t Fs . A standard filtration is a filtration that is both complete and right-continuous. A stochastic process {X t }t≥0 defined o...
متن کاملMarket efficiency, managerial compensation, and real efficiency
Article history: Received 10 October 2012 Received in revised form 14 October 2013 Accepted 23 March 2014 Available online 12 April 2014 We examine how an exogenous improvement in market efficiency, which allows the stock market to obtain more precise information about the firm's intrinsic value, affects the shareholder–manager contracting problem, managerial incentives, and shareholder value. ...
متن کامل1 Market efficiency and forecasting
The interest in predicting stock prices or returns is probably as old as the markets themselves, and the literature on the subject is enormous. Fama (1970) reviews early work and provides some organizing principles. This chapter concentrates selectively on developments following Fama's review. In that review, Fama describes increasingly fine information sets in a way that is useful in organizin...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: The Quarterly Journal of Economics
سال: 1990
ISSN: 0033-5533
DOI: 10.2307/2937816