منابع مشابه
Extrapolating human probability judgment
We advance a model of human probability judgment and apply it to the design of an extrapolation algorithm. Such an algorithm examines a person's judgment about the likelihood of various statements and is then able to predict the same person's judgments about new statements. The algorithm is tested against judgments produced by thirty undergraduates asked to assign probabilities to statements ab...
متن کاملQuantum Probability Explanations for Probability Judgment ‘Errors’
A quantum probability model is introduced and used to explain human probability judgment errors including the conjunction, disjunction, inverse, and conditional fallacies, as well as unpacking effects and partitioning effects. Quantum probability theory is a general and coherent theory based on a set of (von Neumann) axioms which relax some of the constraints underlying classic (Kolmogorov) pro...
متن کاملFuzzy universality of probability judgment.
Probability judgment is essential to navigating through life, from understanding risks to making decisions under uncertainty. However, probability theory is relatively recent. How has humanity managed to get along before this development? In PNAS, Fontanari et al. (1) provide exciting new evidence of probabilistic cognition among Mayan indigenous groups, both adults and children, whose performa...
متن کاملCoherent probability from incoherent judgment.
People often have knowledge about the chances of events but are unable to express their knowledge in the form of coherent probabilities. This study proposed to correct incoherent judgment via an optimization procedure that seeks the (coherent) probability distribution nearest to a judge's estimates of chance. This method was applied to the chances of simple and complex meteorological events, as...
متن کاملProbability Judgment in Artificial Intelligence
This paper is concerned with two theories of probability judgment: the Bayesian theory and the theory of belief functions. It illustrates these theories with some simple examples and discusses some of the issues that arise when we try to implement them in expert systems. The Bayesian theory is well known; its main ideas go back to the work of Thomas Bayes (1702-1761). The theory of belief funct...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Theory and Decision
سال: 1994
ISSN: 0040-5833,1573-7187
DOI: 10.1007/bf01079209