Explosive oil prices

Do Oil Futures Prices Help Predict Future Oil Prices?

2004 and by more than 40% since the beginning of 2005.Though the U.S. economy has apparently absorbed this supply shock well so far, the path of future oil prices remains a concern for monetary policymakers. Higher oil prices can damp demand, as consumers and firms spend more of their budgets on oil-related products and less on other goods and services. Furthermore, if higher oil prices are pas...

The Asymmetric Impact of Oil Prices on Gasoline Prices

Anticipated and unanticipated effects of crude oil prices and oil inventory changes on gasoline prices

This paper proposes a method of distinguishing between the effect of anticipated and unanticipated changes in oil prices and oil inventories on the US gasoline prices. I show that gasoline price adjustments are faster and stronger for anticipated changes in oil prices and inventory levels than for unanticipated changes. The dynamics of the gasoline price response depends on the relative importa...

Long Run Prices of Primary Commodities and Oil Prices

Acute volatile movements in primary commodity prices have drawn enough interests from empirical researchers. Exports of these commodities account for the bulk of export earnings of developing countries. The traditional demand based framework has been unable to explain the marked deterioration in these prices during 1980s. This paper tries to ascertain the role played by real oil prices in expla...

Monetary Effects on Nominal Oil Prices

The paper presents a theory of nominal asset prices for competitively owned oil. Focusing on monetary e¤ects, with ‡exible oil prices the US dollar oil price should follow the aggregate US price level. But with rigid nominal oil prices, the nominal oil price jumps proportionally to nominal interest rate increases. We …nd evidence for structural breaks in the nominal oil price that are used to i...