Explaining the duration of exchange-rate pegs

The duration of fixed exchange rate regimes

This paper studies the survival of fixed exchange rate regimes. The probability of an exit from a fixed exchange rate regime depends on the time spent within this regime. In such a context durations models are appropriate, in particular because of the possible non-monotonic pattern of duration dependence. Non-parametric estimates show that the pattern of duration dependence exhibits non-monoton...

Evaluation of Sustainability of the Foreign Exchange Rate Regimes in Iran Based on Duration Models

Iran's economy as a developing and oil economy, needs to choose appropriate exchange rate regime is to achieve its economic goals. Some characteristics such as little diversity in production and trade, weak and underdevelopment financial markets and other features of the Iranian economy, Requires the choice of exchange rate regime be based on the features of the country. However, the choice of ...

The Appropriate Exchange Rate System and the Regulation and Forecast of Exchange Rate for Iran's Economy

Interest Rate Pegs in New Keynesian Models∗

The conventional policy perspective is that lowering the interest rate increases output and inflation in the short run, while maintaining inflation at a higher level requires a higher interest rate in the long run. In contrast it has been argued that a Neo-Fisherian policy of setting an interest-rate peg at a fixed higher level will increase the inflation rate. We show that adaptive learning ar...

International order flows: Explaining equity and exchange rate returns

Macroeconomic models of equity and exchange rate returns perform poorly at high frequencies. The proportion of daily returns that these models explain is essentially zero. Instead of relying on macroeconomic determinants, we model equity price and exchange rate behavior based on a concept from microstructure– order flow. The international order flows are derived from belief changes of different...