منابع مشابه
Monetary Shocks and Real Exchange Rates
Many explanations of the stylized facts concerning real exchange rate movements focus on monetary shocks, but it is often found empirically that monetary shocks are unimportant. I provide evidence that is contrary to this empirical finding. Using over 100 years of data, I estimate the contribution of various shocks to explaining variation in the real pound-dollar exchange rate. Monetary shocks ...
متن کاملMonetary Policy and the Predictability of Nominal Exchange Rates
This paper studies how the monetary policy regime affects the relative importance of nominal exchange rates and inflation rates in shaping the response of real exchange rates to shocks. We document two facts about countries with floating exchange rates where monetary policy controls inflation using a short-term interest rate. First, the current real exchange rate predicts future changes in the ...
متن کاملTesting for Monetary Integration and Contagion in ASEAN Exchange Rates
The Asian financial crisis in 1997 brought to the attention of member countries of the Association of South East Asian Countries (ASEAN-5) (comprising Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand) the need for closer monetary co-operation. Central to the OCA literature is the nature and symmetry of underlying economic disturbances. If the economic disturbances are similar across...
متن کاملMonetary Exit Strategy and Fiscal Spillovers
The aftermath of the global financial crisis has seen two types of concerns in regards to monetary policy outcomes. Some (eg Paul Krugman or Brad De Long) worry primarily about the short-term possibility of deflation caused by a prolonged slump. In contrast, others (eg Greg Mankiw or John Taylor) worry more about excessively high inflation in the longer-term caused by recent bailouts/quantitati...
متن کاملHow Well Do Monetary Fundamentals Forecast Exchange Rates?
For many years after the seminal work of the Meese and Rogoff (1983a), conventional wisdom held that exchange rates could not be forecast from monetary fundamentals. Monetary models of exchange rate determination were generally unable to beat even a naïve no-change model in out-of-sample forecasting. More recently, the use of sophisticated econometric techniques, panel data, and long spans of d...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Theoretical Economics
سال: 2018
ISSN: 1933-6837
DOI: 10.3982/te2669