Evaluating the Rationality of Fixed-event Forecasts
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
ترجمه و نقد کتاب the justification of science and the rationality of religious belife
چکیده ندارد.
15 صفحه اولAdmissibility and Event-rationality Admissibility and Event-rationality
We develop an approach to providing epistemic conditions for admissible behavior in games. Instead of using lexicographic beliefs to capture infinitely less likely conjectures, we postulate that players use tie-breaking sets to help decide among strategies that are outcome-equivalent given their conjectures. A player is event-rational if she best responds to a conjecture and uses a list of subs...
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Brandenburger et al. (2008) establish epistemic foundations for rationality and common assumption of rationality (RCAR), where rationality includes admissibility, using lexicographic type structures. Their negative result that RCAR is empty whenever the type structure is complete and continuous suggests that iterated admissibility (IA) requires players to have prior knowledge about each other, ...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Forecasting
سال: 1997
ISSN: 0277-6693,1099-131X
DOI: 10.1002/(sici)1099-131x(199707)16:4<225::aid-for656>3.0.co;2-l