EU-sentiment predicts the 2016 Dutch referendum vote on the EU’s association with Ukraine better than concerns about Russia or national discontent

This article utilises large-N panel data to compare two theories of referendum voting behaviour in order understand the ‘for’ or ‘against’ vote 2016 Dutch on EU-Ukraine Association Agreement. It studies extent which was predicted by Eurosceptic attitudes and fear upsetting Russia (issue-based theory), versus dissatisfaction with government general political discontent (second-order theory). Our findings indicate that issue-based determinants predict better than second-order predictors. However, satisfaction both outperform concerns about relationship as a predictor. We thus provide evidence approaches explain EU referendums are complementary, but not equal explanatory strength.