Estimation of Demand for Beef Imports in Indonesia: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach

Import policies for food products, including beef, need to support national security while protecting the domestic industry. This study aims develop a model beef import demand of Indonesia. The employed annual secondary data from various sources 1990 2019. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and error correction models (ECM) were adapted predicting long-run short-run demand, by considering income growth, production, relative price, exchange rate. bounds test showed that gross product (GDP) growth per capita, rate had no significant effect on in long run; nonetheless, price between local international market considerable impact (5.353%). In short run, GDP capita production significantly affected (0.036% ?0.9%, respectively). Error term (ECT) corrected disequilibrium current year towards following (17.60%). finding is confirmed fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), dynamic (DOLS), canonical co-integrating regression (CCR) methods. Ultimately, this can serve as an instrument formulating policy related imports