Estimating a Latent Risk Premium in Exchange Rate Futures

Estimating the market risk premium

This paper provides a method for estimating the market risk premium that accounts for shifts in investment opportunities by explicitly modeling the underlying process governing the level of market volatility. I find that approximately 50% of the measured risk premium is related to the risk of future changes in investment opportunities. Evidence of a structural shift in the underlying volatility...

Conditional Time-varying Interest Rate Risk Premium: Evidence from the Treasury Bill Futures Market

We investigate the conditional interest rate risk premium in Treasury bill futures returns. A one-factor model predicts that the premium depends on the conditional variance. An Intertemporal CAPM based two-factor model predicts that it also depends on conditional covariance with the equity premium. Univariate and bivariate Integrated GARCH-in-Mean models suggest that the premium relates positiv...

Presenting a Model for Portfolio Risk Premium Assessment: Evidence from the Tehran Stock Exchange

This study aimed to present a model for portfolio risk premium assessment of companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange. In order to achieve this purpose, monthly data of 150 companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange during 2007-2017 was used. In this study, the predictive powers of FamaFrench three-factor model [11], Carhart four-factor model [1], Fama - French five-factor model [24], Brousseau...

Bond futures, inflation-indexed bonds, and inflation risk premium

We propose a new approach to measuring long-run inflation risk, the inflation risk premium, and inflation expectations for the UK over the period 1985–2012. By adding long-term bond futures to the information set of inflation-indexed and nominal bonds, inflation risk is measured as an incremental time-varying covariance obtained from a trivariate GARCH model with dynamic conditional correlation...

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