Equity Risk Premium Predictability from Cross-Sectoral Downturns
نویسندگان
چکیده
Abstract We illustrate the role of left tail dependence—left mean (LTM)—in equity risk premium (ERP) predictability. LTM measures average pairwise dependency among major sectors incorporating shocks imperceptible at aggregate level. LTM, as well variance premium, significantly predicts ERP in and out sample, which is not case with commonly used predictors. find this predictability result procyclical shocks’ reversals a stable business cycle. This paper contributes to ongoing debate on (JEL G10, G12, G14)
منابع مشابه
Measuring the equity risk premium
We use surveys of economic forecasts to derive a forward-looking estimate of the US equity risk premium (ERP) relative to government bonds. Our ERP measure helps predict short-term relative returns between stocks and bonds. Over the period we studied, low readings of the ERP tended to adjust back to the mean via a rally in the bond market rather than a fall in stock prices. We do not generalise...
متن کاملRe-assessing the Equity Risk Premium
Estimates of the historical equity risk premium in the UK are in the range 7% to 9% per annum. Until recently, portfolio investors and industrialists have been encouraged to use a premium of this order in making investment decisions. The purpose of this paper is to review the risk premium debate and to re-inforce the case for rejecting historical experience in formulating future investment plan...
متن کاملThe Risk Premium for Equity: Explanations
The equity premium puzzle shows that using standard parameters and setup, the Consumption-based Capital Asset Pricing Model’s (CCAPM’s) prediction of the premium associated with systematic risk is out by an order of magnitude. The object of this paper is to consider the implications of each of the broad classes of explanations of the equity premium puzzle for resource allocation, welfare and po...
متن کاملEquity Market Volatility and Expected Risk Premium
This paper revisits the time-series relation between the conditional risk premium and variance of the equity market portfolio. The main innovation is that we construct a measure of the ex ante equity market risk premium using corporate bond yield spread data. This measure is forward-looking and does not rely critically on either realized equity returns or instrumental variables. We find strong ...
متن کاملDefault Risk, Asset Pricing and Equity Premium∗
The evaluation and control of an agent‘s debt has become a major issue in economics. In this paper we focus on firms and study credit risk, debt control and asset valuation of firms. We demonstrate that firm specific credit constraints and endogenous risk premia, based on collateralized borrowing, affect the asset value of the firm and, in turn, the collateral value of the firm. In order to exp...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: The Review of Asset Pricing Studies
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['2045-9939', '2045-9920']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/rapstu/raac001