Effectiveness of anti-inflation policy that ensures economic growth: Evidence from post-Soviet countries

There are active debates on the scale of inflation-economic growth causality in short- and long-term perspectives factors affecting correlation effectiveness anti-inflationary measures depending initial economic conditions. These scientific result controversial results. This study aims to explore long-run relationships chain 12 post-Soviet countries (Azerbaijan, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine, Georgia) determine most effective system policy. The paper employed statistical analysis trend line extrapolation (analysis inflationary trends 2000–2021 forecast for 2022–2024), pooled mean group autoregressive distributed lag model Stata 14.2/SE software (identification short coefficients characterizing between inflation growth), ordinary least squares regression (country-specific modeling results). Statistical showed that Estonia have policy; Azerbaijan, Moldova demonstrate moderate effectiveness, other low effectiveness. It is also established long run, a 1% increase results 0.195% decrease GDP with 99% confidence probability, while this causal relationship insignificant. Country-specific revealed within countries, Ukraine short-term perspective depends dynamics. According results, Lithuania has policy ensure sustainable growth.