Economic Viability and Emissions of Multimodal Transportation Infrastructure in a Changing Arctic

Abstract As Arctic open water increases, shipping activity to and from mid- western Russian ports points south has notably increased. A number of municipalities hope increased vessel traffic will create opportunities become a major transshipment hub. However, even with more passing these ports, it might still be economically cheaper offload cargo at southern port, which may also result in lower emissions. Ultimately, the question whether use versus an established European port is determined by relative costs (or emissions) sea land travel. This study calculates competitiveness six Norwegian coastal cities as multimodal hubs for shipments. We quantify prices CO 2 emissions travel routes starting Norwegian–Russian border ultimate destination central Europe find that all existing are not competitive using Port Rotterdam (Netherlands); investments expansion modernization, they would underutilized regardless increase destined Europe. then examine under what (emissions) viable or than ports. Notably, cheapest generally produce lowest emissions, most expensive tend have largest Communities should consider prior making large infrastructure investments. While some choices physically possible, viable. Significance Statement Climate change, while disruptive, can new opportunities. Many transshipping hub declining ice opens mid-Russian paper quantifies transportation finds uncompetitive (Netherlands). show direct Thus, provide critical services support local regional economic activity, year-round navigation ports’ development into distant locations neither nor desirable.