Ecological and societal effects of Central Asian streamflow variation over the past eight centuries

Abstract Understanding changes in water availability is critical for Central Asia; however, long streamflow reconstructions extending beyond the period of instrumental gauge measurements are largely missing. Here, we present a 785-year-long reconstruction from spruce tree rings Tien Shan Mountains. Although an absolute causal relationship can not be established, relatively high rates coincided roughly with Mongol expansion 1225 to 1260 CE and rise Timurid Empire 1361 1400 CE. Since overall wetter conditions were further found during Zunghar Khanate 1693–1705 CE, argue that phases surplus likely promoted oasis grassland productivity, which was important factor inner Eurasian steppe empires. Moreover, suggest variation might plague outbreaks Asia, propose several explanations possible links Europe’s repeated Black Death pandemics. We demonstrate 20th-century low unprecedented past eight centuries exacerbated Aral Sea crisis, one most staggering ecological disasters twentieth century.