E-bike user groups and substitution effects: evidence from longitudinal travel data in the Netherlands

Abstract In recent years, the e-bike has become increasingly popular in many European countries. With higher speeds and less effort needed, is a promising mode of transport to many, it considered good alternative for certain car trips by policy-makers planners. A major limitation studies that investigate such substitution effects e-bike, their reliance on cross-sectional data which do not allow an assessment within-person travel changes. As consequence, there currently no consensus about e-bike’s potential replace trips. Furthermore, been little research focusing heterogeneity among users. this respect, likely different groups exist use reasons (e.g. leisure vs commute travel), something will also influence possible patterns. This paper contributes literature two ways: (1) presents statistical analysis assess extent are substituting other modes based longitudinal data; (2) reveals user population. Random Intercept Cross-Lagged Panel Model estimated using five waves from Netherlands Mobility Panel. Latent Class Analysis performed Dutch national survey. Results show that, when data, between competing public as significant reported earlier research. general, only significantly reduce conventional bicycle Netherlands, can be regarded unwanted effect policy-viewpoint. For commuting, substitutes results with own distinct behaviour patterns socio-demographic characteristics. They primarily commuting or education growing at much rate than mainly shopping purposes.