Does financial connectedness predict crises?

Financial Crises and Political Crises∗

The simultaneous determination of financial default and political crises is studied in an open economy model. Political crises accompany default in equilibrium because of an information transmission conflict between the government and the public. Multiple equilibria are possible: if foreign lenders are pessimistic about the country’s stability, they demand a high interest on the debt, exacerbat...

Does Economic Collaboration Adjust The Effects Of Financial Crises On Poverty In The Islamic Countries

Appendix to "Financial Crises and Political Crises"

PBE Type i: Neither default nor political crisis If V ≤ χL, the costs of default are always larger than the costs of servicing the debt even for the benevolent government. Then in equilibrium, the government proposes to service the debt, which is accepted by the representative agent. Hence the debt is repaid and political crisis is avoided. Neither the benevolent government nor the self interes...

Modeling Financial Crises Mutation

The recent financial turmoils in Latin America and Europe have led to a concatenation of several events from currency, banking and sovereign debt crises. This paper proposes a multivariate dynamic probit model that encompasses the three types of crises ’currency, banking and sovereign debt’ and allows us to investigate the potential causality between all three crises. To achieve this objective,...

Psychology, Financial Decision Making, and Financial Crises.

It is understandable that people ask how the current financial crisis could happen. As the market actors appear irrational, it is also understandable that people—lay people and experts alike—believe that psychological factors play a decisive role. Is there evidence for such a role, and what is the evidence? This monograph reviews, evaluates, and discusses research—primarily psychological resear...