Do Uncertainty and Technology Drive Exchange Rates?

Nonlinearity In Exchange Rates and Forecasting

Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Labour Market Adjustment under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates

The standard literature on working time has modelled the decisions of firms in a deterministic framework in which firms can choose between employment and overtime (given mandated standard hours). Contrary to this approach, we follow the real options approach, which allows us to investigate the value to a firm of waiting to adjust labour when the firm ́s revenues in domestic currency are stochast...

Calibrating measurement uncertainty in purchasing power parity exchange rates

Do Fixed Exchange Rates Fetter Monetary Policy ? A Credit

The Bernanke-Blinder credit-view model is expanded to encompass a small, open economy with fixed exchange rates. In contrast to conventional wisdom and traditional models, monetary policy is resurrected as a stabilization tool. Further, various financial sector shocks are shown to have real aggregate demand effects. We show that independent monetary policy actions can ha ve substantive impacts ...

How Well Do Monetary Fundamentals Forecast Exchange Rates?

For many years after the seminal work of the Meese and Rogoff (1983a), conventional wisdom held that exchange rates could not be forecast from monetary fundamentals. Monetary models of exchange rate determination were generally unable to beat even a naïve no-change model in out-of-sample forecasting. More recently, the use of sophisticated econometric techniques, panel data, and long spans of d...