Do transportation network companies increase or decrease transit ridership? Empirical evidence from San Francisco

Abstract Transportation network companies (TNCs), such as Uber and Lyft, have been hypothesized to both complement compete with public transit. Existing research on the topic is limited by a lack of detailed data timing location TNC trips. This study overcomes that limitation using scraped from Application Programming Interfaces two TNCs, combined Automated Passenger Count transit use other supporting data. Using panel model change in bus ridership San Francisco between 2010 2015, confirming result separate time-series model, we find TNCs are responsible for net decline about 10%, offsetting gains factors service increases population growth. We do not statistically significant effect light rail ridership. Cities agencies should recognize transit-competitive nature they plan, regulate operate their transportation systems.