Do Provisional Estimates of Output Miss Economic Turning Points?
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Provisional Estimates of Output Miss Economic Turning Points ? Karen
Initial estimates of aggregate output and its components are based on very incomplete source data, so they may not fully capture shifts in economic conditions. In particular, if those estimates are based partly on trends in preceding quarters, one would expect to see provisional estimates overstating activity when actual output is decelerating and understating it when actual output is accelerat...
متن کاملTurn, Turn, Turn: Predicting Turning Points in Economic Activity
strength and duration, that have, so far, characterized economic activity. January 31, 2001: Preliminary real GDP growth for the fourth quarter is barely above 1 percent, more than 4 percentage points below what is was only two quarters before and about 7 percentage points below its level in the third quarter of 1999. Much of the press, and some forecasters, predict that the first quarter of 20...
متن کاملPredicting Turning Points
This paper presents a new method for predicting turning points. The paper formally defines a turning point; develops a probit model for estimating the probability of a turning point; and then examines both the in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting performance of the model. The model performs better than some other methods for predicting turning points. *While working on this paper, all three ...
متن کاملTurning Points in Environmental History
List of Participants: Werner Abelshauser (University of Bielefeld), Alla Bolotova (European University, St. Petersburg), Stefan Brakensiek (University of Bielefeld), Franz-Josef Brüggemeier (University of Freiburg), Jens Ivo Engels (University of Freiburg), Deborah Fitzgerald (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), Bernd-Stefan Grewe (University of Constance), Richard H. Grove (University of S...
متن کاملTurning Points in Computer Education
This history of computers in education covers two continents. By analysing the experiences of two people a set of turning points in history is identified. These turning points are in the experienced history and so indicate the impact of changes on the citizens of two countries.
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: SSRN Electronic Journal
سال: 2001
ISSN: 1556-5068
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.293886