Do political relations affect exports to China? Evidence from the ‘Quad’

This paper quantifies the effects of shocks in political relations on merchandise goods exports to China for the’Quad’ countries, namely Australia, India, Japan and USA, between 1998 2018. Using a vector auto-regression approach, our estimates suggest that deteriorating only have short- long-run India's aggregate export growth over this period; there are none. A time-disaggregated analysis 5-year sub-periods shows long-term (lasting up 2 years) significant India sub-period 1998–2002, while all other no any four countries. product-disaggregated top five each Quad countries reveals that, trade do vary by product type country short term, these countries’ major China.