Distributionally robust chance-constrained flexibility planning for integrated energy system

Inflexible combined heat and power (CHP) plants uncertain wind production result in excess distribution networks, which leads to inverse flow challenging grid operations. Power-to-X facilities such as electrolysers electric boilers can offer extra flexibility the integrated energy system. In this regard, we aim jointly determine optimal facility sizing system operations study. To account for uncertainties, a distributionally robust chance-constrained model is developed characterize uncertainties using ambiguity sets. Linear decision rules are applied analytically express real-time recourse actions when exposed, allows propagation of gas systems. Accordingly, three-stage converted into computationally tractable single-stage mixed-integer conic model. A case study validates effectiveness introducing electrolyser boiler system, with respect decreased cost, expanded CHP plant reduced flow. The optimization exhibits better robustness compared assuming forecast errors follow Gaussian distribution. Detailed profit analysis reveals that although overall cost minimized, distributed unevenly across various stakeholders mainly falls plants, therefore most motivated make investments resources. Other parties rely on additional policies bilateral contracts gain incentives invest. findings from be used motivate policy-makers proper regulations incentivize resources establish more reliable grid.