Distributed ARIMA models for ultra-long time series

نویسندگان

چکیده

Providing forecasts for ultra-long time series plays a vital role in various activities, such as investment decisions, industrial production arrangements, and farm management. This paper develops novel distributed forecasting framework to tackle the challenges of using industry-standard MapReduce framework. The proposed model combination approach retains local dependency. It utilizes straightforward splitting across samples facilitate by combining estimators models delivered from worker nodes minimizing global loss function. Instead unrealistically assuming data generating process (DGP) an stays invariant, we only make assumptions on DGP subseries spanning shorter periods. We investigate performance with AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) real application well numerical simulations. Our improves accuracy computational efficiency point prediction intervals, especially longer forecast horizons, compared directly fitting whole ARIMA models. Moreover, explore some potential factors that may affect our approach.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: International Journal of Forecasting

سال: 2023

ISSN: ['1872-8200', '0169-2070']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2022.05.001