Disagreement Among Forecasters in G7 Countries

Does Disagreement amongst Forecasters have Predictive Value?

Forecasts from various experts are often used in macroeconomic forecasting models. Usually the focus is on the mean or median of the survey data. In the present study we adopt a different perspective on the survey data as we examine the predictive power of disagreement amongst forecasters. The premise is that this variable could signal upcoming structural or temporal changes in an economic proc...

Forecast Disagreement in the Survey of Professional Forecasters

www.philadelphiafed.org THE SURVEY’S DESIGN The SPF is the oldest quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States, having been initiated in 1968 under the leadership of Victor Zarnowitz at the American Statistical Association and the National Bureau of Economic Research. After conducting what was then known as the ASA-NBER Quarterly Economic Outlook Survey for 22 years, the ASA...

Total factor productivity in the G7 countries: a short note

The analysis of the composition of economic growth in the G7 countries has been motivated by the desire to identify regularities that contribute to explaining economic success. Such analysis must be carried out with a long term perspective, and the relevant production function should reflect existing world technology and not just domestic conditions. Moreover, in order to assess the relative pe...

The role of media for inflation forecast disagreement of households and professional forecasters

This paper investigates the effects of media coverage and macroeconomic conditions on inflation forecast disagreement of German households and professional forecasters. We adopt a Bayesian learning model in which media coverage of inflation affects forecast disagreement by influencing information sets as well as predictor choice. Our empirical results show that disagreement of households depend...

ANTIMICROBIAL RESISTANCE IN G7 COUNTRIES AND BEYOND: Economic Issues, Policies and Options for Action