Differences between Severe and Nonsevere Warm-Season, Nocturnal Bow Echo Environments
نویسندگان
چکیده
Abstract Nocturnal bow echoes can produce wind damage, even in situations where elevated convection occurs. Accurate forecasts of potential tend to be more challenging for operational forecasters than daytime bows because incomplete understanding how interacts with the stable boundary layer. The present study compares differences warm-season, nocturnal echo environments which high intensity [>70 kt (1 ≈ 0.51 m s −1 )] severe winds (HS), low (50–55 kt) (LS), and nonsevere (NS) occurred. Using a sample 132 events from 2010 2018, 43 forecast parameters SPC mesoanalysis system were examined over 120 km × region centered on strongest storm report or most pronounced bowing convective segment. Severe composite are found among best discriminators between all severity types, especially derecho parameter (DCP) significant tornado (STP). Shear only cases, while available energy (CAPE) HS LS/NS echoes. Convective inhibition (CIN) is worst types. providing predictive skill STP unstable CAPE, LS these V component at CAPE (VMXP) level, STP, supercell parameter. Combinations two shown improve forecasting further, combination surface-based 0–6-km U shear component, DCP VMXP, skillful forecasts, respectively.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Weather and Forecasting
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['0882-8156', '1520-0434']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-20-0137.1