Development of brown rot epidemics in Spanish peach orchards

Abstract A new approach to modelling epidemics of brown rot caused by Monilinia spp. in Ebro Valley peach orchards has been developed. This compartmental model was subdivided according the phenological stages which disease can develop (blossom, immature fruit, and ripe fruit). Information host susceptibility, primary secondary inoculum sources latent infections fruit taken into account. The is described a system differential equations, simple enough allow an analytical study main epidemiological factors that determine rate progress during single growing season. proposed fits well epidemic pattern observed north-eastern Spain. transmission as non-linear term implied small changes infection had large effect on development disease. confirmed usefulness removing mummies (infected remains crop winter) from field reduce final incidence In addition, all control measures either through use more resistant varieties or fungicides, are effective reducing incidence. flexible allows add complexities evaluate effectiveness different strategies.