Development Model for Estimating Critical Path Probability of Element Path in PERT
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
On path correlation and PERT bias
Most studies of project time estimation assume that (a) activity times are mutually independent random variables; many also assume that (b) path completion times are mutually independent. In this paper, we subject the impact of both these assumptions to close scrutiny. Using tools from multivariate analysis, we make a theoretical study of the direction of the error in the classical PERT method ...
متن کاملEntropy as a Measure of Uncertainty for PERT Network Completion Time Distributions and Critical Path Probabilities
This study proposes that the entropy function provides a simple and useful tool for project managers to better cope with project uncertainty, and therefore better manage projects. The entropy function has a long and established history as a measure of uncertainty in information theory. If selected activities on PERT networks are modified by reducing their activity times by one or more time unit...
متن کاملShortest Path Problem with Gamma Probability Distribution Arc Length
We propose a dynamic program to find the shortest path in a network having gamma probability distributions as arc lengths. Two operators of sum and comparison need to be adapted for the proposed dynamic program. Convolution approach is used to sum two gamma probability distributions being employed in the dynamic program.
متن کاملA new probability model for insuring critical path problem with heuristic algorithm
In order to obtain an adequate description of risk aversion for insuring critical path problem, this paper develops a new class of two-stage minimum risk problems. The first-stage objective function is to minimize the probability of total costs exceeding a predetermined threshold value, while the secondstage objective function is to maximize the insured task durations. For general task duration...
متن کاملWhen is the Critical Path Not the Most Critical Path?
This paper challenges the conventional thinking, by proposing a new way to understand and use the term critical-path. At stake is much more than a semantic discussion of terminology. Numerous surveys have confirmed that CPM schedules are used for two primary reasons: project management and dispute resolution. To support either use, the critical-path must be identifiable in a consistent, objecti...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
سال: 2010
ISSN: 1738-3692
DOI: 10.5389/ksae.2010.52.2.027