منابع مشابه
Drugs foresight 2020: a Delphi expert panel study
BACKGROUND Historically substance misuse has been relatively common in western countries, but comparatively few Finns report drug use. The Drugs 2020 study aimed at foreseeing changes in the drug situation in Finland by the year 2020. METHODS The Delphi method was used, utilizing drug experts of the EU national network in Finland. RESULTS Marked growth was foreseen in drug use, especially i...
متن کاملForesight and Delphi Processes as Information Sources for Scenario Planning
The series are ‘ideas in progress,’ after the notion described by I.J. Good in ‘The Scientist Speculates.’ Good also describes ideas about ideas as ‘partly baked ideas’ believing that “ ... it is often better to be stimulating and wrong than boring and right.” While these papers do not take this tenet as an excuse for licence at the expense of rigour, they are exploratory and the ideas may chan...
متن کاملForesight in health sciences using Causal Layered Analysis method
Background: Development in health is not possible without progress of science. Rapid changes in the various areas make the future health system more complex and risky. Therefore, foresight of health sciences is very important. Methods: This futures studies was conducted in 4 steps; also, literature and documents review, statistics and information review, focus group discussions, w...
متن کامل“Problems of Selecting Experts for Delphi Exercises,” Academy of Management
[//121] The Delphi technique of aggregating the forecasts of a number of experts on multidisciplinary issues/1/ is a recent development in long-range forecasting. By sequentially polling the experts' opinions, interspersed with feedback of information on the just-previous poll to the experts, consensus is generated. Meanwhile, anonymity is guaranteed in the polling procedures so that social psy...
متن کاملEvaluation of Nine Consensus Indices in Delphi Foresight Research and Their Dependency on Delphi Survey Characteristics: A Simulation Study and Debate on Delphi Design and Interpretation
The extent of consensus (or the lack thereof) among experts in emerging fields of innovation can serve as antecedents of scientific, societal, investor and stakeholder synergy or conflict. Naturally, how we measure consensus is of great importance to science and technology strategic foresight. The Delphi methodology is a widely used anonymous survey technique to evaluate consensus among a panel...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Foresight-Russia
سال: 2007
ISSN: 1995-459X,2312-9972
DOI: 10.17323/1995-459x.2007.1.68.73