Declining tropical cyclone frequency under global warming

Abstract Assessing the role of anthropogenic warming from temporally inhomogeneous historical data in presence large natural variability is difficult and has caused conflicting conclusions on detection attribution tropical cyclone (TC) trends. Here, using a reconstructed long-term proxy annual TC numbers together with high-resolution climate model experiments, we show robust declining trends number TCs at global regional scales during twentieth century. The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) dataset used for reconstruction because, compared other reanalyses, it assimilates only sea-level pressure fields rather than utilize all available observations troposphere, making less sensitive to temporal inhomogeneities observations. It can also capture signatures pre-satellite era reasonably well. found are consistent century weakening Hadley Walker circulations, which make conditions formation favourable.