Decadal Prediction of the Summer Extreme Precipitation over Southern China
نویسندگان
چکیده
The decadal variability of the summer extreme precipitation over southern China (EPSC) is remarkable, especially for significant enhancement after 1990s. study documented that sea surface temperature (SST) North Atlantic and spring ice concentration (SIC) East Siberian Sea can significantly affect EPSC. SST influences low-pressure cyclone in western Pacific by modulating tropical Pacific, thus affecting A decrease SIC induces a negative Arctic Oscillation, which increased northwest anomalous there, turn, Both predictors have quasi-period 10–14 years, provides useful predictive signals leading 7-year 5-year are chosen to establish prediction model based on increment method, well predict EPSC, shift early These results provide clue limited predictability decadal-scale climate events.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Atmosphere
سال: 2023
ISSN: ['2073-4433']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14030595