Decadal Prediction of the Summer Extreme Precipitation over Southern China

نویسندگان

چکیده

The decadal variability of the summer extreme precipitation over southern China (EPSC) is remarkable, especially for significant enhancement after 1990s. study documented that sea surface temperature (SST) North Atlantic and spring ice concentration (SIC) East Siberian Sea can significantly affect EPSC. SST influences low-pressure cyclone in western Pacific by modulating tropical Pacific, thus affecting A decrease SIC induces a negative Arctic Oscillation, which increased northwest anomalous there, turn, Both predictors have quasi-period 10–14 years, provides useful predictive signals leading 7-year 5-year are chosen to establish prediction model based on increment method, well predict EPSC, shift early These results provide clue limited predictability decadal-scale climate events.

برای دانلود باید عضویت طلایی داشته باشید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Variability of summer precipitation over eastern China

We use measurements of recent decades, 1500-yr proxy data, and millennium model simulations with a variety of climate facings to study the temporal and spatial variability of summer precipitation over eastern China. Spectral analysis of the proxy data using multi-taper method reveals three statistically significant bidecadal (15–35-yr), 5 pendadecadal (40–60-yr), and centennial (65–170-yr) osci...

متن کامل

Extreme precipitation and extreme streamflow in the Dongjiang River Basin in southern China

Papers published in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions are under open-access review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Abstract Extreme hydro-meteorological events have become the focus of more and more studies in the last decade. Due to the complexity of the spatial pattern of changes in precipitation processes, it is still hard to establish a clear view of how pr...

متن کامل

Decadal summer drought frequency in China: the increasing influence of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation

Decadal variations in summer drought events during 1956–2005 are examined over Eastern China to identify their leading variability modes and their linkages to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), and global warming. The PDO influence is found to dominate China drought frequency from the 1960s to early 1990s via modulating the Western Pacific Subtropic...

متن کامل

Decadal changes in extreme daily precipitation in Greece

The changes in daily precipitation totals in Greece, during the 45-year period (1957–2001) are examined. The precipitation datasets concern daily totals recorded at 21 surface meteorological stations of the Hellenic National Meteorological Service, which are uniformly distributed over the Greek region. First and foremost, the application of Factor Analysis resulted in grouping the meteorologica...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Atmosphere

سال: 2023

ISSN: ['2073-4433']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14030595