COVID-19, state capacity, and political violence by non-state actors

The COVID-19 pandemic has constrained the ability of states across world to govern and control their territories. As state reduces its activities, space opens for violent non-state actors working against fill vacuum. Highlighting this trend, present study evaluates effects pandemics more broadly on attacks by actors. Our theory emphasizes incentives both rebels pro-government (PGNs) increase attack frequency as disease spreads retracts governance activities preserve resources needed elsewhere. In first case, we highlight how allows reduce asymmetries power with respect military establish themselves a viable government alternative. second PGNs, which provide an alternative militaries, are deployed these contested spaces thwart or pre-empt rebellion during pandemic. Employing daily-level data annual change in armed conflict cases 127 countries between 1 January 2020 15 June 2020, test claims using econometric identification strategy. We do not find clear evidence that led higher rebel attacks, suggesting groups prefer bolster standing nonviolent means, avoid fighting resources. contrast, PGN increased prevalence compared last year. Case studies insurgent activity Afghanistan Nigeria lend additional support results, illustrating some underlying mechanisms. findings explore overlooked challenges other disasters pose mitigation role PGNs play contexts.