Covid-19 forecast using Holt-Winters exponential smoothing

Abstract Covid-19 has spread throughout the world, including in Indonesia and it is known that virus reported to be highly contagious. fourth-largest population for cases Asia, while world top three covid-19 are United States, Brazil, India, so inevitable, will greatly felt of pandemic coronavirus, even estimated freed from coronavirus a shorter period when compared other countries with less exposure COVID-19. In this paper, we study prediction model using Holt-Winters exponential smoothing, certain period. This uses data area Gorontalo, Indonesia, April 10 October 13, 2020 (especially total cases). It was found best forecasting one smoothing parameters α = 0.1 γ δ 0.5 trend seasonality respectively, which gives smallest MAPE value 6.14.