Coupled Hydro-Mechanical Modeling of Swelling Processes in Clay–Sulfate Rocks

Abstract Swelling of clay–sulfate rocks is a serious and devastating geo-hazard, often causing damage to geotechnical structures. Therefore, understanding underlying swelling processes crucial for the safe design, construction, maintenance infrastructure. Planning appropriate countermeasures problem requires thorough involved. We developed coupled hydro-mechanical (HM) model reproduce observed heave in historic city Staufen south-west Germany, which was caused by water inflow into bearing Triassic Grabfeld Formation (formerly Gipskeuper = “Gypsum Keuper”) after geothermal drilling. Richards’ equation deformation process with linear kinematics used describe behavior rocks. The mathematical implemented scientific open-source framework OpenGeoSys. compared calculations measured long-term records at study site. then designed sensitivity analysis achieve deeper insight phenomena. synthetic database obtained from develop machine learning (ML) model, namely least-squares boosting ensemble (LSBoost) Bayesian optimization algorithm rank importance parameters controlling swelling. HM reproduced sufficient accuracy, practical point view. ML showed that maximum pressure most important parameter other influential as Young’s modulus, Poisson’s ratio, overburden thickness, initial volumetric content layer.