Could domestic soybean production avoid Europe’s protein imports in 2050?

The European Union has a high demand for plant proteins food and feed. Its self-sufficiency rate is about 5% soya crude proteins. its Member States have launched initiatives reducing imports that come mainly from South America promoting domestic production of protein-rich crops. In the future, climate suitability soybean cultivation likely to increase in oceanic continental Europe. recent AE2050 study (INRAE. 2020. Role agriculture world trade by 2050: Balancing change global security issues. Summary report study. INRAE (France), 12 p; Tibi A, Forslund Debaeke P, et al. Place des agricultures européennes dans le monde à l’horizon 2050 : entre enjeux climatiques défis de la sécurité alimentaire. Rapport synthèse l’étude. 159 p + Annexes) concluded that, some parts Europe (defined here as Union-27 plus other Balkan countries, Switzerland, Norway United Kingdom), cropland requirements may be lower than “2010” areas given possible changes (related glooming demographic growth under assumption healthy diets) crop yields (influenced technological developments change). this study, we examine what extent “cropland surplus” could used reduce dependency ratio on protein imports. Only case Healthy Diets scenario (less meat consumption, inducing less animals fed with cakes), substantial acreages envisaged reliance addition surplus allowed increasing yields, land was also made available reduction livestock grain feed requirements. best-case scenario, combining diets trend-based yield growth, would only 15% total versus 45% Trend-based scenario. This can compared 51% our base year “2010”, 53%–54% two scenarios without growing surplus. If range these quite optimistic estimations dedicated reduced more plausible levels (limited 10% annual field 2050) considering current (“2019” instead “2010”), decrease Europe’s oil cake lower. However, still 54% 46% 53% 38% One important conclusion adopting allow significant cakes abroad expected environmental benefits overseas. On supply side, challenges higher resulting development will both suitable areas, attainable relative profitability.