Correlation Neglect, Voting Behavior, and Information Aggregation

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Correlation Neglect, Voting Behaviour and Information Aggregation

In this paper we analyse elections when voters underestimate the correlation between their information sources (“correlation neglect”). We find that this cognitive bias can improve political outcomes. We show that the extreme beliefs which result from correlation neglect induce some voters to base their vote on information rather than on political preferences. We characterise conditions on the ...

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We analyse a voting model when voters have correlation neglect, that is, they sometimes fail to appreciate that new information might be correlated with old information. We show that compared with rational voters, a society composed of voters with correlation neglect is more likely to vote for the correct outcome, if the distribution of preferences in society is heterogeneous and suffi ciently ...

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: American Economic Review

سال: 2015

ISSN: 0002-8282

DOI: 10.1257/aer.20140134