Cool season precipitation projections for California and the Western United States in NA-CORDEX models

نویسندگان

چکیده

Abstract Understanding future precipitation changes is critical for water supply and flood risk applications in the western United States. The North American COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment (NA-CORDEX) matrix of global regional climate models at multiple resolutions (~ 50-km 25-km grid spacings) used to evaluate mean monthly precipitation, extreme daily snow equivalent (SWE) over States, with a sub-regional focus on California. Results indicate significant model spread several key water-sensitive areas both historical projections, but suggest agreement increasing magnitudes, decreasing seasonal snowpack, shortening wet season California particular. While beginning end cool are projected dry according most models, core (December, January, February) shows an overall wetter change pattern. Daily cool-season extremes generally increase particularly mid-winter months. Finally, marked decrease SWE found across all accompanied by earlier dates maximum SWE, thus period cover as well. discussed context how diverse membership variable offered NA-CORDEX ensemble can be best leveraged stakeholders faced planning challenges.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Climate Dynamics

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['0930-7575', '1432-0894']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05632-z