Consistent Bayesians Are No More Accurate Than Non-Bayesians: Economists Surveyed About PSA
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Understanding Non-bayesians
Once one becomes used to thinking about inference from a Bayesian perspective, it becomes difficult to understand why many econometricians are uncomfortable with that way of thinking. But some very good econometricians are either firmly nonBayesian or (more commonly these days) think of Bayesian approaches as a “tool” which might sometimes be appropriate, sometimes not. This paper tries to arti...
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Subjective beliefs and behavior regarding the Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA) test for prostate cancer were surveyed among economists attending the annual American Economic Association meeting. Logical inconsistency was measured in percentage deviations from a restriction imposed by Bayes’ Rule on pairs of conditional beliefs. Economists with inconsistent beliefs tended to be more accurate than...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Review of Behavioral Economics
سال: 2016
ISSN: 2326-6198,2326-6201
DOI: 10.1561/105.00000034