Comparison of Atmospheric Refractivity Estimation Methods and Their Influence on Radar Propagation Predictions

Environmental predictions in the marine atmospheric surface layer (MASL) are imperative to optimize X-band radar system performance environments. Evaporation ducts (ED) lead anomalous propagation where characterization of EDs MASL occurs primarily through two methods: in-situ measurements and numerical modeling. This study investigates differences co-located synchronous refractivity estimations from CASPER-East campaign. Propagation generated for refractive profiles measurements, Monin-Obukov boundary similarity theory, weather prediction forecasts. Variations evaporation duct height (EDH) found be a primary driver between estimated profiles, location EDH relative transmitter changes sensitivity estimates. Differences large when estimates span lowest across methods is small, regardless how much variation there When small physical regimes causing discrepancies–for example, leakage into versus trapping within duct. Variation greatest stable M-deficit curvature also influence specifically scenarios spans transmitter. all EDHs below transmitter, variance contributor variance, but profile play secondary role. M-deficits agree most often during periods stability.