Commercial Energy Demand Forecasting in Bangladesh

Although both aggregate and per capita energy consumption in Bangladesh is increasing rapidly, its still one of the lowest world. gradually shifted from petroleum-based to domestically sourced natural-gas-based sources, which are predicted run out within next two decades. The present study first identified determinants commercial three major components oil, natural gas, coal demand for using a simultaneous equations framework on an annual database covering period 47 years (1972–2018). Next, forecast future 2019–2038 under business-as-usual ongoing COVID-19 pandemic scenarios with some assumptions. As part sensitivity analysis, based past trends, we also hypothesized four alternative GDP population growth corresponding changes total forecast. results revealed that while lagged drivers country, did not see strong effects own- cross-price elasticities attributed reasons: subsidized low prices, time cost required switch between different energy-mix technologies, suppressed demand. expected increase by 400% end forecasting 2038 existing level 2018 scenario, whereas effect could suppress it down 300%. Under highest will occur (3.94-fold), followed gas (2.64-fold) oil (2.37-fold). all sources at variable rates. ex ante errors were small, varying range 3.6–3.7% values. Sensitivity analysis rates showed 3.58% 2019 8.79% original Policy recommendations include capacity building ensuring safety sustainability newly proposed nuclear power installations, removing inefficiency production distribution services, shifting towards renewable green (e.g., solar power), redesigning subsidy policies market-based approaches.