Coherent lower previsions in systems modelling: products and aggregation rules
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Coherent lower previsions in systems modelling: products and aggregation rules
We discuss why coherent lower previsions provide a good uncertainty model for solving generic uncertainty problems involving possibly conflicting expert information. We study various ways of combining expert assessments on different domains, such as natural extension, independent natural extension and the type-I product, as well as on common domains, such as conjunction and disjunction. We prov...
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Walley’s theory of coherent lower previsions builds upon the former theory by Williams with the explicit aim to make it deal with conglomerability. We show that such a construction has been only partly successful because Walley’s founding axiom of joint coherence does not entirely capture the implications of conglomerability. As a way to fully achieve Walley’s original aim, we propose then the ...
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This is an introduction to the concepts of lower and upper prevision and the mathematical theory of coherence. Upper and lower previsions are generalisations of upper and lower probabilities. They can model a very wide variety of kinds of uncertainty, partial information and ignorance. The theory of coherent lower previsions is based on a simple behavioural interpretation of lower previsions. T...
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In this paper we study the relationship between the notion of coherence for conditional prevision assessments on a family of finite conditional random quantities and the notion of admissibility with respect to bounded strictly proper scoring rules. Our work extends recent results given by the last two authors of this paper on the equivalence between coherence and admissibility for conditional p...
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We study the conformity of marginal unconditional and conditional models with a joint model under assumptions of epistemic irrelevance and independence, within Walley’s theory of coherent lower previsions. By doing so, we make a link with a number of prominent models within this theory: the marginal extension, the irrelevant natural extension, the independent natural extension and the strong pr...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Reliability Engineering & System Safety
سال: 2004
ISSN: 0951-8320
DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2004.03.007