Climate Change?Legacy Phosphorus Synergy Hinders Lake Response to Aggressive Water Policy Targets

نویسندگان

چکیده

With mounting scientific evidence demonstrating adverse global climate change (GCC) impacts to water quality, quality policies, such as the Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDLs) under U.S. Clean Water Act, have begun accounting for GCC effects in setting nutrient load-reduction policy targets. These targets generally require reductions attaining prescribed standards (WQS) by safe levels of concentrations that curtail potentially harmful cyanobacteria blooms (CyanoHABs). While some governments WQS consider change, few tools are available model complex interactions between and benthic legacy nutrients. We present a novel process-based integrated assessment (IAM) examines extent which synergistic relationships Phosphorus release could compromise ability policies attain established WQS. The IAM is calibrated simulating eutrophic Missisquoi Bay watershed Lake Champlain (2001–2050). seven P-reduction scenarios, including 64.3% reduction specified current TMDL, were examined 17 scenarios. TMDL 0.025 mg/L total phosphorus unlikely be met 2035 mandated all simulations show frequency severity summer CyanoHABs increased or minimally decreased most By harnessing IAMs couple simulation models, management freshwater lakes can become more adaptive through explicit on both external internal sources

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Earth’s Future

سال: 2022

ISSN: ['2328-4277']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021ef002234