Climate change information over Fenno-Scandinavia produced with a convection-permitting climate model
نویسندگان
چکیده
Abstract This paper presents results from high-resolution climate change simulations that permit convection and resolve mesoscale orography at 3-km grid spacing over Fenno-Scandinavia using the HARMONIE-Climate (HCLIM) model. Two global models (GCMs) have been dynamically down-scaled for RCP4.5 RCP8.5 emission scenarios both near far future periods in 21st century. The warmer moister conditions simulated GCMs lead to changes precipitation characteristics. Higher amounts are fall, winter spring, while summer, increases northern decreases southern parts of domain. Both daily sub-daily intense become more frequent expense low-intensity events, with most pronounced shifts summer. In Scandinavian mountains, occur snow a shift falling as rain, reduced cover less days significant depth. HCLIM exhibits systematically different responses several aspects, e.g. smaller rain western part mountains consistent decrease urban heat island effect by end Most importantly, shows significantly stronger increase summer hourly extremes compared intermediate 12-km spacing. addition, an analysis statistical significance indicates time least couple decades is recommended achieve statistically robust results, matter important concern when running such model experiments. presented here emphasizes importance “convection-permitting” produce reliable information Fenno-Scandinavian region.
منابع مشابه
Predicting Climate Regime Change in Chaotic Convection
A toy climate analogous to the famous Lorenz system [1] is derived and compared to computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations in order to test new modeling techniques. In particular, methods of data assimilation and ensemble forecasting are used to predict regime changes and residencies in this toy climate. A climate “truth” is created using a finite-element simulation of a thermal convecti...
متن کاملPredicting Climate Regime Change in Chaotic Convection
A toy climate analogous to the famous Lorenz system [1] is derived and compared to computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations in order to test new modeling techniques. In particular, methods of data assimilation and ensemble forecasting are used to predict regime changes and residencies in this toy climate. A climate “truth” is created using a finite-element simulation of a thermal convecti...
متن کاملPlanetary boundary layer energetics simulated from a regional climate model over Europe for present climate and climate change conditions
[1] This paper presents a description of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) for current (1960–1990) and future (2070–2100) climate periods as obtained from a regional climate model (RCM) centered on the Mediterranean basin. Vertically integrated turbulent kinetic energy (TKEZ) and boundary layer height (zi) are used to describe PBL energetics. Present climate shows a TKEZ annual cycle with a cl...
متن کاملA review on regional convection‐permitting climate modeling: Demonstrations, prospects, and challenges
Regional climate modeling using convection-permitting models (CPMs; horizontal grid spacing <4 km) emerges as a promising framework to provide more reliable climate information on regional to local scales compared to traditionally used large-scale models (LSMs; horizontal grid spacing >10 km). CPMs no longer rely on convection parameterization schemes, which had been identified as a major sourc...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Climate Dynamics
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['0930-7575', '1432-0894']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06589-3