Chinese Provincial Air Pollutant Concentration Prediction over the Long Term

Although China’s urban air quality has improved, there are still many cities that do not meet ambient standards and experience serious pollution problems, causing tremendous damage to people’s health sustainable social development. For the sake of obtaining specific time when will reach standard, annual mean pollutant concentrations 27 Chinese provinces predicted analyzed. Based on original data from in 2017 2021, a gray prediction model with fractional order accumulation is established analyze predict concentration pollutants provinces. The applicability then validated by absolute percentage error values. According forecast results, 2026, six pollutants, PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, CO, O3, all Class II 25 provinces, namely Beijing, Chongqing, Shanghai, Hebei, Jiangsu, Shanxi, Zhejiang, Liaoning, Anhui, Jilin, Fujian, Heilongjiang, Jiangxi, Hubei, Qinghai, Hunan, Guangdong, Hainan, Guangxi, Guizhou, Shaanxi, Gansu, Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang (corrected for effect sandstorms). Tianjin, Sichuan, (not corrected sandstorms) exceed standard respectively. Sichuan Tianjin are, respectively, expected 2027 2030, fail next 15 years. Finally, current situation respect analyzed, corresponding suggestions put forward offer an explicit direction relevant departments.