منابع مشابه
Catastrophic Risks
Catastrophic risks are rare events with major consequences, e.g. catastrophic climate change or extinction of a species. The article summarizes decision theory involving catastrophic risks within Von Neumanns axiomatic theory of choice under uncertainty, and within new extensions of the theory that are speci cally designed for rare events of major consequences. The classic expected utility the...
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Interim Reports on work of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis receive only limited review. Views or opinions expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of the Institute, its National Member Organizations, or other organizations supporting the work.
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We use a smooth particle hydrodynamics method (SPH) to simulate colliding rocky and icy bodies from cm-scale to hundreds of km in diameter, in an effort to define self-consistently the threshold for catastrophic disruption. Unlike previous efforts, this analysis incorporates the combined effects of material strength (using a brittle fragmentation model) and self-gravitation, thereby providing r...
متن کاملCatastrophic medical expenditure risk.
We propose a measure of household exposure to particularly onerous medical expenses. The measure can be decomposed into the probability that medical expenditure exceeds a threshold, the loss due to predictably low consumption of other goods if it does and the further loss arising from the volatility of medical expenses above the threshold. Depending on the choice of threshold, the measure is co...
متن کاملPredicting catastrophic shifts.
Catastrophic shifts are known to pose a serious threat to ecology, and a reliable set of early warning indicators is desperately needed. However, the tools suggested so far have two problems. First, they cannot discriminate between a smooth transition and an imminent irreversible shift. Second, they aimed at predicting the tipping point where a state loses its stability, but in noisy spatial sy...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Dermatology Practical & Conceptual
سال: 2019
ISSN: 2160-9381
DOI: 10.5826/dpc.1001a20