Building Capacity for a User-Centred Integrated Early Warning System for Drought in Papua New Guinea

Drought has significant impacts on the agricultural productivity and well-being of Pacific Island communities. In this study, a user-centred integrated early warning system (I-EWS) for drought was investigated Papua New Guinea (PNG). The I-EWS combines satellite products (Standardised Precipitation Index Vegetation Health Index) with seasonal probabilistic forecasting outputs (chance exceeding median rainfall). Internationally accepted thresholds each these inputs are conditionally combined to trigger three stages—”DROUGHT WATCH”, “DROUGHT ALERT” EMERGENCY”. developed used examine evolution strong El Niño-induced event in 2015 as well weaker La Niña-induced dry period 2020. Examining warnings at provincial level, it found that tailored lead times 3–5 months could have been possible several impacted PNG provinces. These would enable increasingly proactive responses potential prioritised allocation funds level. methodology utilised within study uses openly freely available globally which indicates promising adaptation other Countries vulnerable drought.