Bradley–Terry modeling with multiple game outcomes with applications to College Hockey

نویسندگان

چکیده

The Bradley-Terry model has previously been used in both Bayesian and frequentist interpretations to evaluate the strengths of sports teams based on win-loss game results. It also extended handle additional possible results such as ties. We implement a generalization which includes multiple outcomes wins or losses regulation, overtime, shootouts. A natural application is ice hockey competitions international matches, European professional leagues, NCAA hockey, all use zero-sum point system values overtime shootout 1/3 win, win. incorporate this into probability model, posterior distributions for associated strength parameters using techniques Gaussian expansion about maximum posteriori estimates, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Mathematics for Applications

سال: 2022

ISSN: ['1805-3610', '1805-3629']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.13164/ma.2021.13