Bayesian Precalibration of a Large Stochastic Microsimulation Model

Bayesian Calibration of Microsimulation Models.

Microsimulation models that describe disease processes synthesize information from multiple sources and can be used to estimate the effects of screening and treatment on cancer incidence and mortality at a population level. These models are characterized by simulation of individual event histories for an idealized population of interest. Microsimulation models are complex and invariably include...

Bayesian Analysis of a Stochastic Volatility Model

investigating the feasibility of a proposed model for geometric design of deployable arch structures

deployable scissor type structures are composed of the so-called scissor-like elements (sles), which are connected to each other at an intermediate point through a pivotal connection and allow them to be folded into a compact bundle for storage or transport. several sles are connected to each other in order to form units with regular polygonal plan views. the sides and radii of the polygons are...

Aspen: A Microsimulation Model of the Economy

This report presents Aspen. Sandia National Laboratories is developing this new agentbased macroeconomic simulation model of the U.S. economy. The model is notable because it allows a large number of individual economic agents to be modeled at a high level of detail and with a great degree of freedom. Some features of Aspen are (a) a sophisticated message-passing system that allows individual p...

A Microsimulation Model of Population Heat Exposure

Exposure to extreme heat is an important cause of morbidity and mortality throughout the world. The elevation of temperatures and increases in extended periods of high temperatures due to climate change means that heat exposure as a health concern will increase. Thus, methodologies that researchers and practitioners can use to assess heat exposure among various population groups will become inc...