Bayesian evidence test for precise hypotheses

Bayesian evidence test for precise hypotheses

The full Bayesian signi/cance test (FBST) for precise hypotheses is presented, with some illustrative applications. In the FBST we compute the evidence against the precise hypothesis. We discuss some of the theoretical properties of the FBST, and provide an invariant formulation for coordinate transformations, provided a reference density has been established. This evidence is the probability o...

Evidence and Credibility: Full Bayesian Significance Test for Precise Hypotheses

A Bayesian measure of evidence for precise hypotheses is presented. The intention is to give a Bayesian alternative to significance tests or, equivalently, to p-values. In fact, a set is defined in the parameter space and the posterior probability, its credibility, is evaluated. This set is the “Highest Posterior Density Region” that is “tangent” to the set that defines the null hypothesis. Our...

Evidence for Alternative Hypotheses

Most researchers want evidence for the direction of an effect, not evidence against a point null hypothesis. Such evidence is ideally on a scale that is easily interpretable, with an accompanying standard error. Further, the evidence from identical experiments should be repeatable, and evidence from independent experiments should be easily combined, such as required in meta-analysis. Such a mea...

Sticky Genomes: Using NGS Evidence to Test Hybrid Speciation Hypotheses

Hypotheses of hybrid origin are common. Here we use next generation sequencing to test a hybrid hypothesis for a non-model insect with a large genome. We compared a putative hybrid triploid stick insect species (Acanthoxyla geisovii) with its putative paternal diploid taxon (Clitarchus hookeri), a relationship that provides clear predictions for the relative genetic diversity within each genome...

Bayesian Possibilistic Support for Sharp Hypotheses