Bayesian Estimates of Transmission Line Outage Rates That Consider Line Dependencies

Transmission line outage rates are fundamental to power system reliability analysis. Line outages infrequent, occurring only about once a year, so data limited. We propose Bayesian hierarchical model that leverages dependencies better estimate of individual transmission lines from limited data. The estimates have lower standard deviation than estimating the simply by dividing number years data, especially when is small. produces more accurate rates, as well uncertainty these rates. Better can improve risk assessment, prediction, and maintenance scheduling.