Bayesian Combination of State Polls and Election Forecasts
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Bayesian Combination of State Polls and Election Forecasts
A wide range of potentially useful data are available for election forecasting: the results of previous elections, a multitude of preelection polls, and predictors such as measures of national and statewide economic performance. How accurate are different forecasts? We estimate predictive uncertainty via analysis of data collected from past elections (actual outcomes, preelection polls, and mod...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Political Analysis
سال: 2010
ISSN: 1047-1987,1476-4989
DOI: 10.1093/pan/mpq002