Bayesian belief modeling of climate change impacts for informing regional adaptation options
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Bayesian belief modeling of climate change impacts for informing regional adaptation options
A sequential approach to combining two establishedmodeling techniques (systems thinking and Bayesian Belief Networks; BBNs)was developed and applied to climate change adaptation researchwithin the South East Queensland Climate Adaptation Research Initiative (SEQ-CARI). Six participatoryworkshops involving 66 stakeholders based within SEQ produced six system conceptualizations and 22 alpha-level...
متن کاملRational Irrationality: Modeling Climate Change Belief Polarization Using Bayesian Networks
UNLABELLED Belief polarization is said to occur when two people respond to the same evidence by updating their beliefs in opposite directions. This response is considered to be "irrational" because it involves contrary updating, a form of belief updating that appears to violate normatively optimal responding, as for example dictated by Bayes' theorem. In light of much evidence that people are c...
متن کاملRegional climate change scenarios and their impacts on water requirements for wheat production in Iran
We simulate the effect of climate change on water requirements of cold seasonwheat in various climatic zones of Iran. The research considers both observedclimate (temperature and precipitation) changes during recent decades (1960-2009)based on instrumental records and projected future changes to 2100 based on theMAGICC/SCENGEN 5.3 compound model. 20 General Circulation models are usedbased on a...
متن کاملCrops and climate change: progress, trends, and challenges in simulating impacts and informing adaptation.
Assessments of the relationships between crop productivity and climate change rely upon a combination of modelling and measurement. As part of this review, this relationship is discussed in the context of crop and climate simulation. Methods for linking these two types of models are reviewed, with a primary focus on large-area crop modelling techniques. Recent progress in simulating the impacts...
متن کاملA Bayesian Real Options Model for Adaptation to Catastrophic Risk under Climate Change Uncertainty
We present a novel framework for the valuation of investments to mitigate catastrophic risk of climate impacted hazards. Our model incorporates the impact of uncertainty and continuous Bayesian information updating on investment decisions. We show that the model is relevant even when the time required to resolve uncertainty is indefinite. The model is applied to bushfire risk management in a lo...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Environmental Modelling & Software
سال: 2013
ISSN: 1364-8152
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.07.008